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Post by tapsgator on Nov 28, 2022 13:53:57 GMT -5
FSU game was a little bit of a microcosm of the season as a whole. Started off well on offense, defense was porous but got a key turnover early, at halftime the other team(s) adjusted and we did not so we got blitzed out of the half and looked awful, pulled it together at the end but it wasn't enough. We were short-handed (especially and our most talented player was under-developed courtesy of the prior regime not being good at or caring about recruiting and development once Mullen thought he had punched his ticket to the NFL. That said, there were also some puzzling (to say the least) personnel, game planning, and in-game strategy decisions that fall squarely on this staff and need to be fixed ASAP if we want to return to national relevance. Couple thoughts
- I think this staff can recruit but based on the mixed results as far as development, our composite (recruits plus accounting for portal going both way) rank needs to be top 5 more often than not if we want to make even a 12 team playoff. For reference this year our talent composite was 12 in the country and we probably finished the season ranked somewhere in the 30s at best.
- I really cannot fathom our defensive approach starting at the development phase where the S&C department had at least 2 guys playing 40+ pounds too heavy. Moving on to game planning how we got beat by varying versions of the same QB from the real good (Hooker) to the kinda good (Daniels and Travis) to the ugly (the kid from Vandy who was benched 2 weeks prior), and never really adjusted even at halftime. While I understand and get why watching on TV it might appear that Travis was the superior QB on Friday, he wasn't. It's just impossible to describe the wide swaths of open grass that was readily available to him and their receivers unless and until you see it in person. For whatever reason we never put a spy on him. Didn't even try it. Richardson would have eviscerated that Defense because it played to his strengths and away from his weaknesses. Which is the other issue I have, we have a more physically gifted versions of the QBs that pushed our shit in. Watch tape on how teams took him out of his game, put him in a non-contact jersey at practice against the 1s and 2s on Defense. Anything really. Maybe they tried that in practice but in games it was the definition of insanity. Toney absolutely needs to go or have coordinator taken off his job title at the very least.
- It became very apparent that AR would not keep the ball on the read option. Maybe it was him, maybe it was the coaches trying to keep him healthy, maybe it was both, here's a crazy idea: Stop calling it. If you want him to run, call runs. It was obvious that we couldn't execute a swing pass, nor get particularly close, Richardson cannot throw it, no receivers were aggressive or good in space, and teams were not scared of us over the top. Stop calling it. Probably doesn't matter at this point since the consensus seems to be that Richardson will enter the draft and a vocal segment (I would say minority but I'm not sure that's accurate) of the fanbase will get their wish next year when Kitna takes over. Based on the snaps he's taken I'll give the kid this, for a silver spoon kid he's got some balls. Keeping it on a read-option when you come in as a relief guy shows a lot.
- Montrell Johnson is a nice running back. Etienne is a superstar. If you're not going to use them both (seems like it might have been worth a shot when we're down to backup TEs being used at WR) Etienne absolutely must be the closer.
- Why do we struggle in the Redzone when we have a 6'4 235 lbs. QB who clocks some of the top ballcarrier speeds in the country, two NFL caliber backs, and an O-line that excels at blocking? It feels like at least 60% of the time we get cute and try to out-think the room.
- Do you get extra timeouts in the second half in the Sunbelt conference? Or maybe math generally works differently? I'm a fan of Napier, I am not a fan of his game management. It needs to get better.
- Ending on a positive note, this team did not quit. The staff didn't either, funny how that works. I don't love the term "culture change" because it too easily morphs into an excuse, but here the need was very valid. I think that corner has been turned by most of the guys still on the roster. That was always going to have to be the first domino to fall and I think it's Mission Accomplished there.
It'll be interesting to see what happens next year. I really hope that someone with some common sense can get Richardson's ear and he comes back, but reading the tea leaves I doubt that is in the cards. He's not ready, he's not close, he'd be better off trying to get ready for another year and if he can't flip the switch move him to TE or RB. So, it's really hard to forecast the weather next year, but in all kinds: Go Gators.
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Post by gatorgibson on Nov 28, 2022 14:46:03 GMT -5
Good read Tapsgator, you ever thought about sports writing professionally??
Here's my watered downed less professional opinion:
I seen a lot of bad defenses in the SEC this year including normally dominant Alabama. I think our stats on 3rd and long had a lot to do with lack of talent on the line, almost no push into the backfield which allowed even mediocre qb's to pick us apart. Was it bad coaching also? Maybe. I do believe in giving this staff a couple of good years of recruiting and see what happens....fingers crossed!
Im more worried about the other side of the ball to be honest. Our play calling and game planning from one week to the next is all over the place. One week we run for well over 300 yards and win games by a decent margin then the next week we abandon the run and try to be a passing team. And i can't count the times inside the red zone we went super vanilla with no imagination with a very good running qb. Im more concerned with Rob Sale than Toney.
I do agree this team did not quit like in recent past years and that's a positive! I do believe that Napier will get the job done in due time, again fingers crossed.
If we don't improve somewhat next year all bets are off. Not looking to be back on top of the world next year but improvement across the board is expected. Time will tell.
ps..im still not sold on AR, too many mistakes and very inconsistent. If he stays hope he gets a lot more consistent that's for sure.
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Post by wahhappen on Nov 28, 2022 16:08:32 GMT -5
- Do you get extra timeouts in the second half in the Sunbelt conference? Or maybe math generally works differently? I'm a fan of Napier, I am not a fan of his game management. It needs to get better. This genuinely made me laugh. I don’t understand how we can consistently waste timeouts in the third quarter. All valid points, though. I can’t remember the last time I watched a Gators game and felt like we had the game in hand due to our defense being so shitty. So if nothing else, hopefully we can at least fix the defense enough to where the other teams have to try. As far as AR goes, I hope he comes back but don’t expect him to. I cannot fathom him getting a first round projection with a 54% completion percentage. I mean, that’s even worse than Matthew Stafford. But I guess he could get a bump considering his receivers dropped 50% of his passes that hit their hands and no one got separation all year. Who knows, maybe he can be the next Jets superstar? Whatever happens, we need to get better up front and make calls that play to the strengths of the team(I.e. Etienne and “mobile QB TBD”) .
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Post by tapsgator on Nov 28, 2022 22:20:34 GMT -5
Agree on the playcalling being every bit as big an issue, but that’s not on sale. Unless something has changed Napier is the play caller and the OC position is just a title. Sale is an Oline coach and a pretty damn good one. www.on3.com/college/florida-gators/news/billy-napier-discusses-play-calling-offensive-coordinator-florida-gators-coaching-staff-hires/Good news is there’s no way to dodge accountability. Bad news is between this and the PAT selections and timeout usage there’s plenty to account for. It’s not good when your superstar freshman’s older brother is tweeting in real time “just run the damn ball even if it’s trying it 1 time” and the universal reaction is “he’s not wrong.” It’s really not good when said brother became a first rounder at a school who could use a new RB and the transfer portal is a thing. Also agree on A/R. He absolutely shouldn’t leave and shouldn’t even be in consideration for 1st round slot. That said, 1) he may have the highest physical ceiling we’ve ever seen, closest would be Cam but richardson is faster and more explosive with just as good an arm 2) running QBs are killing it these days 3) most importantly, no money has ever been lost overestimating the egos of nfl GMs and head coaches. It only takes one to say “Dan Mullen is an asshole and Napier was over his skis, I can make this kid a franchise QB” Being completely objective if I was advising him I’d say go back to school and if you don’t trust the staff at UF enter the portal. I hate Ryan day and think he’s the most overrated coach not named Brian Kelly I’ve ever seen, but in that offense throwing to Marvin Harrison Jr who will be a top 5 pick in 24 and the top 2 WR recruits in the country (both from Florida btw) I could easily see a Heisman and 1/1 selection in 24. Against big 10 defenses? AR looks like he has a turbo button in the open field against teams like lsu. Now picture that but instead of 5 stars who are keying on him and will play on Sundays you’ve got 3 star kids from the Midwest who have to pick their poison. Doesn’t matter though, I suspect he’s heading to the draft. I wish him the best of luck, when he’s just letting it fly and playing he’s a lot of fun to watch. I hope somebody can get that out of him if it’s even in there. I don’t think anybody has any real clue what he is at this point. He’s not devoid of fault in that regard, but he has been dealt kind of a shitty hand
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Post by Mojave Gator on Nov 28, 2022 23:17:04 GMT -5
I'm willing to give Napier a wider berth than I might have given a coach coming into a better situation. This was not an Urban Meyer situation where the talent was there, but the coaching was awful and there was no mandatory off-season conditioning program. It was clear that Dan Mullen believed that his own intelligence could overcome decided edges in talent, so he didn't bother to recruit very hard. It reminded me a great deal of the Muschamp years, when all of the best offensive talent in the state went somewhere else. One sports writer said at the time that we didn't have a receiver who would start at any other SEC school. Maybe things weren't quite that dire this season, but they were close. There was no depth, and little real talent. Our best receiver was a portal pickup from Arizona State. The previous staff did very little to develop Anthony Richardson, which means that it fell upon Napier and Co. to do it while simultaneously installing a new offensive system. I am in agreement that the game planning seemed schizophrenic. Some weeks we were a running team, other weeks we were a passing team, still other weeks we had more balance. The opponent and their strengths didn't seem to have much bearing on what we did - leading me to conclude that perhaps there were things that we didn't know from week to week that prompted the coaches to go in different directions than maybe they wanted to at a particular time.
The defense. Along with two players being allowed to play grossly overweight (and therefore not very quick to react), for a big part of the season we were dead last, or close to it, nationally in third down conversion percentage allowed. Distance didn't seem to matter either. Third and 20? 25-yard completion. There was no real pass rush, and we couldn't cover receivers. Any misdirection in the running game seemed to confuse the defense as well. The offense was not good enough for us to win shootout-type games, but because of the lack of defensive performance we often found ourselves involved in them. In most years, if we score 38 points against Florida State, it's game over. Not this year. Six times we gave up 28 points or more, winning one (against South Florida) that we could very easily have lost. We were in a dogfight to the end at home against a team that finished 1-11 and fired their head coach before the end of the season.
I am encouraged by the level of talent that Napier has been able to bring in within a short time frame. He has signed more high level talent in one abbreviated recruiting season than Mullen did the entire time that he was here. Because Mullen didn't really coach or recruit much, it was a steep hill. I believe that Napier was also adjusting to running the show at a much higher level than he was accustomed to. I like that he is instilling badly needed discipline into the program. By kicking Brenton Cox off the team, he showed that star power and perceived status are not protections against the consequences of not complying.
Now what concerns me. This staff was willing to play players who were not remotely in playing shape. That is not the right message to be sending. The defense was a disaster. We didn't stop anything, apart from the South Carolina game and one good half against Texas A&M. Receiver talent is badly lacking, and I'm wondering how many top receivers will be willing to sign here if it turns out that they won't be playing with Anthony Richardson. We have a potential superstar in Trevor Etienne, but he was used far too sparingly. He may seek greener pastures where the potential reward is more certain.
We haven't had a good head coach since Urban Meyer. While that came with its own set of issues, it's hard to argue with the results. Still, that ended 12 years ago, and just as many recruiting cycles have passed since we have been in the conversation for the top players in the nation. We are on our fourth head coach in that time period. This is a bigger rebuild than many people are willing to admit. I have no idea whether this staff is up to the challenge, or if we will be discussing Napier's replacement in a couple of years.
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Post by tapsgator on Nov 29, 2022 10:13:46 GMT -5
I The opponent and their strengths didn't seem to have much bearing on what we did - leading me to conclude that perhaps there were things that we didn't know from week to week that prompted the coaches to go in different directions than maybe they wanted to at a particular time. This was the most perplexing thing to me, on both sides of the ball. I completely agree as far as giving him a lot of latitude, I won't go off on a tangent but I think the real problem is, and always has been, Scott Stricklin who goes straight back to Jeremy Foley the gift that keeps on giving. When Stricklin was hired here's your red flag quote (in addition to the fact that he was basically born and bred professionally in a city where their claim to fame is fucking cowbells): "Foley is not going anywhere: What was reported to be a reason some turned down the job with the Gators, Foley will remain with the program as emeritus athletic director/senior advisor to the president for at least the next five years. The reason this was presumably not much of an issue for Stricklin is that he and Foley have an existing relationship and get along quite well." Source: www.onlygators.com/09/27/2016/florida-hires-mississippi-states-scott-stricklin-as-athletic-director-what-you-need-to-know/With Foley came Stricklin and sure as the sun rising in the East Dan Mullen rode back into town full of douchebaggery, narcissism, and aspirations well beyond his ability. Nevermind that he trashed UF on his way out the door, had been on the hot seat in Starkville despite the low standard for success (come to Starkville where we've got low standards and low test scores! But we've got cowbells), and has made a career of trying to turn short-term success into stepping stones to "better" jobs. But I digress, we are where we are. Napier reminds me a decent bit of Kirby Smart with a slightly different coaching path. Now, as much as I hate to say it, Kirby is damn good and not afraid to set his ego aside and delegate on both sides of the ball. Kirby was 8-5 his first year but had more talent when he walked in the door, but the big swing was in year 2 and built on recruiting, here's his class ranks starting in 17: 3, 1, 2, 1, 4, 3. Last years 4 classes were 1,2,1,4 and this years are 2, 1, 4, 3. That's what Napier has to do because he's shown less as a head coach than Kirby. There are definitely growing pains for just about every head coach in their first year at a destination school. Seems like most make a big jump in year 2 if the cupboard is stocked and year 3 if the cupboard is bare. There are also guys who top out at year 2 when they can't restock the cupboard. I think year 3 will tell the tale on Napier, but definitely interested in what adjustments he makes from year 1 to year 2.
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Post by tapsgator on Nov 29, 2022 11:50:42 GMT -5
Magic/Cursed number for 2022 is 3. In addition to the widely reported 3rd down defense issues, we rose all the way up to 127 out of 131 teams via the South Carolina and Texas A&M games, we also suffered some horrendous 3rd quarters. In our non-UGA (because the dogs came out of the half lacking intensity) losses:
FSU: 17-0 so -17 lose by 7 Vandy: 14-6/-8 lose by 7 LSU: 14-0/-14 lose by 10 Tennessee: 14-7/-7 lose by 5 Kentucky: 10-0/-10 lose by 10
That just quantifies what we already knew as far as adjustments or lack thereof, but that is shockingly bad. I had no idea until I just researched. Coming out of the tunnel we lost 69-13 in those 5 games, or an average of 13.8-2.6. That is appalling. How different does the season look if we just stay within 7 points on average in those games? Worst case we wind up 9-3, maybe 8-4 with some terrible luck. I can't think of a better barometer for a coaching staff's ability to adjust in-game than how they come out after halftime.
Also, did you guys realize that you only get 3 timeouts per half? That doesn't seem fair, how else are we supposed to line up correctly in the third quarter?
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Post by Mojave Gator on Nov 29, 2022 15:58:10 GMT -5
Knowing that Foley still has his egotistical mitts on things explains a lot. Why everyone believes that he was such a great AD is beyond me. The only football hire that he didn't botch badly was Urban Meyer, and that one was made because President Bernie Machen insisted on it. Refusing to admit when he was wrong and digging in on terrible hires rather than acting to minimize damage to the program got us to where we are. Beginning with giving Ron Zook a contract extension after an 8-5 season to keeping Will Muschamp at least a year too long, the list is long and distinguished. Catching lightning in a bottle with Billy Donovan does not offset the damage that he did to Florida football, the engine that drives the train. He always knew better than everyone else when a coaching search took place, and we all saw the end result.
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