What the....??? Patrick Toney going to NFL

[SoTxCaiman]

Patrick Toney, @gatorsfb's co-DC and play-caller last season, is in negotiations to join the NFL's Arizona Cardinals as a defensive assistant, sources tell ESPN, and Florida's Billy Napier is targeting newly hired @alabamaftbl assistant Austin Armstrong as Toney's replacement.

— Chris Low (@clowespn) February 22, 2023

[tapsgator]

The good news is anything to. get Toney out the door, his resume seems a lot more suited to being an unnamed NFL defensive assistant than a defensive coordinator in the SEC. Now instead of making bad play calls he'll make bad coffee for the real coaches and hopefully figure out how to coach along the way. Because I'm grasping at straws at this point in my mind Napier pushed this on his young protege. It was probably unrealistic to expect a 30 year old guy who parlayed 3 years as a safeties coach at UTSA and Louisiana into a 2 year DC gig at Louisiana to come in and call plays in the SEC. He also had to try to recruit against the big boys for Defensive players, especially in Florida given that all his time had been spent in the Southwest. Unrealistic in my opinion.

The bad news, and what makes grasping at straws infinitely more difficult, is the guy that Napier is hiring is 29 years old and parlayed 2 years as a LBers coach into 2 years as the DC at Southern Miss and is from West Alabama/Louisiana. HIs only SEC experience was a 1 year stint as a 25 year old analyst at UGA. He probably makes better coffee than Toney, so he's got that going for him. Which is nice.

To quote what an NFL player and 96 national champion told me in a bar in the Summer of 2002 when I asked about newly hired Ron Zook "I don't know man, I just don't know." Napier certainly believes in his vision if nothing else, but this feels a little like those who don't learn from the past are doomed to repeat it. For the life of me I don't understand why we would need to move right away, afraid if the guy spends another day in addition to the 3 weeks he's been a position coach for Saban he won't jump at a coordinator job? Why not interview and gauge interest from more seasoned guys? Why not Corey Raymond? Charlie Strong? Someone with Gator ties rather than Napier ties? SEC experience rather than Sunbelt experience? A recruiting track record in and out of Florida.

If Napier fails, and the sad truth is he appears to be on his way, it will be because he lives up to the Sunbelt Billy nickname rival fans have given him. What works in the Sunbelt does not work in the SEC. He has time to turn it around, but I think he needs to pause, reflect, and stop doubling down.

[tapsgator]

That's the same guy, he just shaved his beard and went on the Desmond Watson training plan.

[SoTxCaiman]

I have no idea why you wouldn't do everything in your power to get Charlie Strong to take that position. I am mind blown. I really hope they have at least talked and maybe Charlie said he had no interest.

Saban is probably overjoyed at the thought of swapping Armstrong for Strong.

[SoTxCaiman]

I look at that picture of Armstrong and all I can think is....

.....Sure, I only played 3 years on the high school JV, but I was really, really good at Madden!

[tapsgator]

T-Rob, you know damn well he would love to get back to Florida and a promotion would get him here really fast. He brought 2 5 stars and 1 high 4 star to Bama and probably would have gotten McClain if not for Deion. SEC/Florida ties. I don't know if Napier feels insecure so he won't hire guys with more experience than he has, but this is problematic, and the hits keep on coming.



www.on3.com/teams/florida-gators/news/gators-lose-their-third-assistant-to-nfl-in-wr-coach-keary-colbert/

And another one gone. 2nd best recruiter on the staff behind Raymond who I expect to leave in the near future.

This is a problem. I'm going to set aside political correctness for the sake of accuracy. Historically, Recruits want 2 things above all else, generally in this order:

1) Somebody who they think can send them to the NFL, generally someone with a track record of sending guys to the NFL and getting them paid. In other words someone who has been there, done that when it comes to getting guys paid. You can probably add a 1a right now because you can get paid before the NFL but it helps if your NIL actually delivers on it's offers rather than trying to renegotiate after a kid flips.

2) Somebody that reminds them of themselves only older. Or at least how they picture themselves. So again been there done that. It helps if you look like they do, talk like they do, grew up in similar background, played at a similar sized college where you had success either as a player or a coach, dealt with the same social challenges, etc.

Guys like Strong, T-Rob, Raymond, and Colbert check those boxes. Patrick Toney and Austin Armstrong do not. That's why they're not as good at recruiting. They have a decided disadvantage. I also don't think it's the best indicator that the NFL has interest in both players and assistant coaches who enjoyed little or no success under Napier. The NFL doesn't think much of your QB coach and play caller when a guy who completed 54% of his passes and only ran by design 5-8 times a game is likely going to be a top 10 pick. That means they think he was poorly coached and developed, I've always said 2/3 of that is on Mullen but that's probably a biased opinion because I hate Mullen for not trying and Napier is trying. Yes Mullen should have started him in 21, and he did have him for 2 years rather than 1, but in those years he was the 2-4th string QB and he never prepared him as a starter nor did he really coach him in games or call plays for him. Napier did. Our safeties, wide receivers, and tight ends were all putrid last year, but the NFL who does more due diligence than we can imagine still hired these guys. Actions speak louder than words and these actions are not telling a positive story.

Napier needs to turn it around. Maybe continually hiring guys he's comfortable with will eventually lead to him getting one or two right, but it feels like the definition of insanity.

[SoTxCaiman]

Early rumors have Charlie Strong going to Maryland with Mike Locksley and the recently hired Kevin Sumlin. Watch out here come the Terps!



Hadn't seen until your article Taps that our tightends coach, Peagler was going with Toney to the Cardinals. 3 guys from the current staff poached by the NFL, damn.

[tapsgator]

Feb 23, 2023 11:43:20 GMT -5 SoTxCaiman said:

Early rumors have Charlie Strong going to Maryland with Mike Locksley and the recently hired Kevin Sumlin. Watch out here come the Terps!



Hadn't seen until your article Taps that our tightends coach, Peagler was going with Toney to the Cardinals. 3 guys from the current staff poached by the NFL, damn.

I said it in the Strong thread but it's coming very clear that the NFL has a very low opinion of Napier. Was there a worse unit than our Defense or worse position group than our TEs in the SEC? Maybe even Power 5? Has there ever been a QB with less of a track record of success and more raw even discussed as a top 15/top 10/now a bit of top 5 draft pick than Anthony Richardson? Clearly the guys who are the most well read in feel like something or more accurately someone was preventing these coaches and players from being successful.

Gonna call this shot before it happens:

Ike Hilliard was a victim of Freeze bringing in his own guys at Auburn after coaching the Steelers WRs for 2 years. He's just sitting there waiting for a call. We have a position open. One of the greatest receivers in Florida history who actually came back and got his degree at UF while cutting his teeth in the NFL is right there for the taking. You know who we're gonna hire? This guy:

floridagators.com/staff-directory/david-doeker/2986

Not a doubt in my mind.

[SoTxCaiman]

Give the kid Doeker, the tight ends and bring in Ike for the wide receivers?

[gatordoll]

So what will 2024 recruits Myles Graham and Adarius Hayes decide to do? If they were recruited by Toney do they think they will have the same defensive strategies that were promised? Of course we don’t really know how long tbe Napier show will last after 2023 if we continue down tbe path we were on last year.

[wahhappen]

Feb 23, 2023 11:26:18 GMT -5 SoTxCaiman said:

I look at that picture of Armstrong and all I can think is....

.....Sure, I only played 3 years on the high school JV, but I was really, really good at Madden!

I highly doubt he’s good at Madden.

[tapsgator]

Feb 23, 2023 14:00:02 GMT -5 SoTxCaiman said:

Give the kid Doeker, the tight ends and bring in Ike for the wide receivers?

Would make a ton of sense. Probably rearranging relatively small deck chairs on the titanic, but something is better than nothing. I still think they need a real OC and QB coach. Napier's resume as an OC/primary game-planner in Power 5:

OC at Clemson 2008-2010- Fired by Dabo, this makes me wonder if he's going for some weird catharsis in his coordinator choices because he keeps hiring young guys with short resumes and seems to want to stick with them.

OC at Arizona State in 2017- One year OC and the head coach gets fired. Herm Edwards would have kept him but he got the Ragin Cajun job. His most successful run as a Power 5 assistant was an analyst and a TE/WR coach at Bama from 2013-16. His success there coincided with Kiffin as the OC. I don't think Layne's ego or common sense would dictate that Napier had anything vaguely resembling real input in the QB room or the gameplay/play calling during that window. Let's look at the 2015 national title staff:

Saban
Smart
Kiffin
Cristobal
Tucker
Napier
Lanning
Lupoi

Exactly one guy on that list has accomplished less than Napier since. You're telling me that Napier, who was the young guy in the room, had a ton of input? Not in that room. Those are alpha dogs.

For the life of me I cannot understand why he doesn't try to bring in proven specialists and run the program like a CEO a la the guys he learned under Saban, Smart, Dabo. Especially when he has a bazillion staffers and the one thing Stricklin has gotten right is loosening the purse strings. It's not an overnight thing, but I feel like there should be signs of growth and adjustments. He's not dumb I don't think, but Billy you ain't in Lafayette, Louisiana anymore. Adapt or abort.

[tapsgator]

Feb 23, 2023 14:29:11 GMT -5 gatordoll said:

So what will 2024 recruits Myles Graham and Adarius Hayes decide to do? If they were recruited by Toney do they think they will have the same defensive strategies that were promised? Of course we don’t really know how long tbe Napier show will last after 2023 if we continue down tbe path we were on last year.

Just tell them it's the same guy with a different name and get them some NIL money. Not in that order.

[Rock Gator]

Sadly, I'm starting to think about the end of the Napier era. I said at the beginning now, more than ever, we need to give him time to work things out. And I really really want this to work out, but he keeps screwin' the pooch, and nobody wants to see that. This 2023 season is already over - it's not going to be pretty. 2024 is make or break for him IMO. He may get 2025 if Stricklin is A) still employed, and B) stubborn enough to not back down on his big hire. He already screwed it up with Mullen and won't want to admit he's done it again.

RG

[wahhappen]

I want it to work out too, but I am having a difficult time coming to terms with the fact we have nothing positive to build upon in year two coming off of an already disappointing season. I can respect that Napier doesn’t seem to be making any excuses, but maybe he should start unveiling a bit of his “plan” that he likes so much. For example, is part of the plan to get worse before we get better?

[Rock Gator]

I remember a quote by him, something to the effect of "the fans aren't going to like me much after the first year". He was right!

[tapsgator]

Here’s my thing, let’s say for arguments sake napier had Brian Kelly’s resume. If he hired a DC with 2 years of experience as a DC in the sunbelt conference and then that guy produced a historically bad defense, and then not only did he refuse to fire or demote him, but when the NFL actually saved his bacon by hiring said DC away, he didn’t even look at any other candidates but hired a guy with even less experience and a 2 year DC from the sunbelt wouldn’t that raise some eyebrows? For that matter if he hired an OC/QB coach whose power 5 playcalling and OC experience was 2 years and fired by his mentor at Clemson and then a year at Arizona state would that go over well? I want Napier to be the guy and his confidence in his process/plan is something I guess, but from the outside looking in it certainly seems like now would be a good time to evaluate what’s working and what’s not and make adjustments

[Rock Gator]

Let me ask you this: doesn't Stricklin have any say in these hires? My boss certainly had input when I went to hire people, if nothing more than the salary/benefits part. But we had conversations on these hires. Did Stricklin sit there and say "what you're doing is working great Billy, you go be you!"? I mean it's obvious he needs some help at the Coordinator hiring part. Help him!

RG

[tapsgator]

Feb 27, 2023 12:46:27 GMT -5 Rock Gator said:

Let me ask you this: doesn't Stricklin have any say in these hires? My boss certainly had input when I went to hire people, if nothing more than the salary/benefits part. But we had conversations on these hires. Did Stricklin sit there and say "what you're doing is working great Billy, you go be you!"? I mean it's obvious he needs some help at the Coordinator hiring part. Help him!

RG

That’s a good question. Honestly I have no idea what the hell is going on at the UAA. The personnel decisions since Meyer in both major sports have been baffling and stricklin had two harassment/abusive conduct scandals by male coaches in female sports in a short span. It’s pretty remarkable that both he and Foley are still calling the shots. Success in gymnastics and softball doesn’t pay the bills

[Mojave Gator]

Just announced within the last hour or so - Charlie Strong has gone back to Alabama as an analyst.

[SoTxCaiman]

Feb 22, 2023 13:54:43 GMT -5 SoTxCaiman said:

I have no idea why you wouldn't do everything in your power to get Charlie Strong to take that position. I am mind blown. I really hope they have at least talked and maybe Charlie said he had no interest.

Saban is probably overjoyed at the thought of swapping Armstrong for Strong.

Like I said from the beginning...

[tapsgator]

Yeah, I was kind of surprised he didn't get any consideration for the DC job in Bama last time he was an analyst. As per usual, great hire. Kind of screws us on the recruiting trail, but I'm told we need to be patient for the next decade anyway. Can't be expecting anything better than mediocrity for at least 10 years.

[g8rfan]

Mar 3, 2023 13:28:09 GMT -5 tapsgator said:

Yeah, I was kind of surprised he didn't get any consideration for the DC job in Bama last time he was an analyst. As per usual, great hire. Kind of screws us on the recruiting trail, but I'm told we need to be patient for the next decade anyway. Can't be expecting anything better than mediocrity for at least 10 years.

Everything at UF happens on an extended timeline. Haven’t you heard.? It takes Many many years for a QB to develop or a coach to implement his system. Things are different in Gainesville.

[Mojave Gator]

Mar 5, 2023 0:42:51 GMT -5 g8rfan said:

Mar 3, 2023 13:28:09 GMT -5 tapsgator said:

Yeah, I was kind of surprised he didn't get any consideration for the DC job in Bama last time he was an analyst. As per usual, great hire. Kind of screws us on the recruiting trail, but I'm told we need to be patient for the next decade anyway. Can't be expecting anything better than mediocrity for at least 10 years.

Everything at UF happens on an extended timeline. Haven’t you heard.? It takes Many many years for a QB to develop or a coach to implement his system. Things are different in Gainesville.

Although I'm not including Napier on this list yet (since he has only had one year), this happens when you have ADs who botch every head coaching hire for 20 years. The only one that wasn't a disaster since Steve Spurrier left in 2001 was Urban Meyer, and that that hire occurred because the president of the university insisted on it. Otherwise, Jeremy Foley would have hired the next Ron Zook from his personal short list (because he knows more than everyone else).

Simply put, there hasn't been a competent head football coach at UF in over ten years. That means that the players who are being recruited now are barely aware, if they are aware at all, of the last time that the Gators were relevant on the national stage.

[tapsgator]

Mar 5, 2023 22:28:02 GMT -5 Mojave Gator said:

Mar 5, 2023 0:42:51 GMT -5 g8rfan said:

Everything at UF happens on an extended timeline. Haven’t you heard.? It takes Many many years for a QB to develop or a coach to implement his system. Things are different in Gainesville.

Although I'm not including Napier on this list yet (since he has only had one year), this happens when you have ADs who botch every head coaching hire for 20 years. The only one that wasn't a disaster since Steve Spurrier left in 2001 was Urban Meyer, and that that hire occurred because the president of the university insisted on it. Otherwise, Jeremy Foley would have hired the next Ron Zook from his personal short list (because he knows more than everyone else).

Simply put, there hasn't been a competent head football coach at UF in over ten years. That means that the players who are being recruited now are barely aware, if they are aware at all, of the last time that the Gators were relevant on the national stage.

Agreed, it's just wild to me that the media hasn't dropped the "spoiled" narrative yet. Even after watching Zook and Muschamp get washed out at lesser jobs. Folksy McGoober out watching shark porn and writing music in the Pacific Northwest, and Mullen being nails on a chalkboard on TV while his agent continues to float his name in the coaching carousel, we're still spoiled for not giving them enough time. When is the last time a coach was able to do a 180 after more than 2 years of abject failure? Anywhere? Saying it's going to be a bumpy road for 5 years is bullshit, 10 is absolute nonsense. If/when we get the hire right coach this will be a 1-2 year turnaround. That's not just Gator history, it's every big time program at this point. Especially with the portal, etc. I'm also willing to take any bet that the right hire will not be made by someone currently having the title AD after his name, Emeritus or otherwise.

[Rock Gator]

My Dad was in the media, a long time newspaper man. He told me that reporters are all lazy, including himself. He rose to a lofty rank, likely being slightly less lazy than the next guy. Now this was news, not sports, but I expect the trend holds.
RG

[tapsgator]

Here's my hope: learning curve. Napier previously called plays at Clemson with a lot of input from Dabo and an ugly ending:

www.tigernet.com/clemson-football/story/napier-i-call-the-plays-9115

And then I'm guessing he called plays for the season he worked for Todd Graham who evidently is a huge asshole so I'm sure he was constantly meddling.

Then he called his own plays at ULL, and in a move that deviates pretty far from the coaches that he learned under (Dabo, Saban), he's still calling his own plays in the conference with far and away the best talent in CFB and he fancies himself like Nick Saban circa 2014 (pro style/pocket passer with first rounders at every other position group). Interestingly, this article from the hometown Ragin Cajun newspaper around the time talks about this when discussing fits for Napier outside the sunbelt but with regard to LSU (it also raises a good point that has been borne out so far about recruiting ties):

"Why it doesn’t: LSU athletic director Scott Woodward is looking for, and most LSU fans want, a big-name hire. A Sun Belt coach doesn’t exactly fit match, even if his Cajuns are nationally-ranked. It’s a big jump, especially with no prior Power 5 head coaching experience. It could be a tough pitch to the LSU masses, though not nearly as tough as selling a hire from a neighboring school some in Baton Rouge look down at like a redheaded stepchild. Napier also is his own play-caller. Would that work as well at LSU as at UL?"

www.theadvertiser.com/story/sports/college/ul/2021/11/22/louisiana-ragin-cajuns-football-coach-billy-napier-jobs-florida-lsu/8714224002/

So let's be more than fair, borderline soft and coddling, last year was an uphill climb given the step up in competition, and he's never coached anybody remotely like Anthony Richardson (very few have) who had never really been coached up. Take a mulligan Billy, 22 is not on you. However, unsolicited advice, your hall pass has been used up, so remember the old cliche (got old because it's true) "those who don't learn from their past are doomed to repeat it." Go Gators.

[bimigator]

At an early presser after he got to Florida, Napier said he figured a lack of offensive coordinator allows him to hire extra QB coaches and analysts. So there's a method beyond his simply having an ego and wanting to call plays, but agreed with @taps: if it isn't working, he needs to adapt.

That said, there's nothing magical about the OC title. If he's open to input from all offensive coaches regarding plays, it doesn't much matter if it's being called down from a specific person.

[tapsgator]

Mar 7, 2023 14:22:59 GMT -5 bimigator said:

At an early presser after he got to Florida, Napier said he figured a lack of offensive coordinator allows him to hire extra QB coaches and analysts. So there's a method beyond his simply having an ego and wanting to call plays, but agreed with @taps: if it isn't working, he needs to adapt.

That said, there's nothing magical about the OC title. If he's open to input from all offensive coaches regarding plays, it doesn't much matter if it's being called down from a specific person.

I agree, but have a couple concerns. For the record I think Napier is a really good guy, transparent, accountable, high character, and a lot easier to root for than his predecessor(s). I don't think this is ego driven at all. I do remember that quote, but when I look at our staff there's nobody other than Napier assigned to QBs. End of the day here's my 2 thoughts:

1) Napier needs to decide what kind of coach he is. Is he a Ryan Day/Lincoln Riley who I think of as "play-card" guys where they call the game in real time, or does he want to be a CEO like Smart or Saban where they have veto power and gameplay input but the play to play is handled by the OC. His resume and general approach screams that the latter is more appropriate. I would say last year's results indicate the same. I have to wonder if some of the head scratching in-game decisions and failure to get lined up and wasted timeouts and lack of macro-level adjustments except at halftime can be attributed to him trying to serve two masters. If he's really dead set on calling plays he needs to delegate everything else to coordinators and position coaches. To do that he probably needs to start hiring more experienced guys with proven success at this level. If he wants to be a CEO (which is what his mentors do) then he needs to hire someone with experience and let them call the plays. You can get away with wearing lots of hats in the Sunbelt when you're far and away the best recruiter and have a huge talent gap. SEC especially coming off the Mullen fiasco and Stricklin and Foley doing a duet on the violin while Rome burns? Not so much.

2) I'm worried he's trying to prove a point: "football is football and if you can coach/play in the Sunbelt you can do it anywhere." Understandable given that if he succeeds he will be the first guy in recent memory who jumped from a lower level conference to a destination job without at least some sort of stop in between and/or success as a coordinator. He saw the Alabama machine in full swing, he brought a watered-down version of it to the Sunbelt and kicked ass. He is not going to out-Saban Nick Saban and/or Kirby Smart. It's simply not going to happen. If it's going to happen it won't be with 14th ranked recruiting classes that's for damn sure. If he keeps trying to prove that point he'll wind up living up to the "Sunbelt Billy" and "Cajun Willie Taggart" monikers. I hope he doesn't die on that hill.

Everything about year 1 screams for adjustments and not just the record. From the recruiting class to the S&C to the failure to line up to the weird game management to the NIL/Rashada debacle and quite a few things in between, Year 1 was not good. I guess we have some new facilities so that's good. Now if there's a lack of progress (and I would say if anything we're moving the wrong direction) this Fall he absolutely must make major changes, and if he doesn't the program should.

[bimigator]

Mar 9, 2023 11:05:56 GMT -5 tapsgator said:

...when I look at our staff there's nobody other than Napier assigned to QBs.

That is super concerning. Hopefully he has a plan to address it. QB is the single most glaring weakness in our team — even with AR's freaky athleticism last season it was still a liability as a position, and you can't argue we're better off without him.

Looking at the staff roster, the "Offensive Analyst — QB", Ryan O'Hara, is ostensibly helping the position, but it's hard to believe we have position coaches (with assistant/associate head coach designations!) for every other position group but nothing for QBs. Maybe our "offensive coordinator" is assigned to that role, since he's apparently not calling plays, but that's a little scary. We can have the greatest inside linebackers of all time but an empty QB room will kill us.

I think your analysis of Napier as a person seems spot on, and I really am rooting for him. Fingers crossed as we head into the spring.