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Post by tapsgator on Jun 27, 2023 13:22:16 GMT -5
With recruiting services getting way more accurate and with the transfer portal-NIL fustercluck, the one bright side is that the evaluation of talent is at an all-time high. Even before the portal 24/7's team talent composite which has been in existence since 2015 has been pretty spot on with the "outliers" being Clemson in 2016 at 9, Clemson in 2018 at 6, and LSU at 5. Other than that they've all been 1 or 2. Might be confirmation bias at some level, but there's a lot of evidence that Jimmy's and Joe's have replaced X's and O's. So, based on that I think you're pretty safe rolling 2 numbers together that grade a coach's overall performance and serve as a gauge for future performance:
1) The number of losses in a season, and 2) recruiting class rank, this should be overall to account for transfers in, only way to measure transfers out would be to look at the team talent composite going into the season.
For established programs I'd say it's in that order, and for rebuilds it's in the opposite order. So last year would have been 19, 7+12 for RDB. That number HAS to get under 15 this year and the goal should be single digits. If it's over 20 we should make a change. 15-20 I'd say short short leash. I think a successful season would be a top 5 class and a bowl game (for the extra practices), in that order.
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Post by Rock Gator on Jul 3, 2023 8:00:27 GMT -5
You know, last year when we beat a tough Utah team I thought, and said, "This team has some fight!" and I was very encouraged. Then the fight left, the L's started piling up, and I wondered if it was the Xs and Os at that point. For sure though, the Js & Js won that Utah game for us. I like your metric, would be interesting to check it against the last 20 years of Gator football. Have you thought about the ratio of the two? For example, a small 1) and a large 2) would indicate a great coaching season (or great luck) and vice-versa.
RG
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Post by tapsgator on Jul 7, 2023 12:03:26 GMT -5
You know, last year when we beat a tough Utah team I thought, and said, "This team has some fight!" and I was very encouraged. Then the fight left, the L's started piling up, and I wondered if it was the Xs and Os at that point. For sure though, the Js & Js won that Utah game for us. I like your metric, would be interesting to check it against the last 20 years of Gator football. Have you thought about the ratio of the two? For example, a small 1) and a large 2) would indicate a great coaching season (or great luck) and vice-versa. RG I like it. For the ratio you could use the talent composite when it comes out in order to figure out how well you coached. For Gators: 2022: 14 in talent composite; 38 final ranking 2021: 7 in talent composite; 51 final 2020: 7/13 2019: 15/5 2018: 12/9 2017: 17/can't even find it 2016: 16/14 2015: 15/24 with a nosedive at the end of the year I think that's pretty spot on as far as the coaching with the only years that constituted "good" coaching being the ones where Mullen was actually invested. Couple thoughts on this: 1) McGoober (other than 2017 when he spit the bit by making up death threats) performed in line with his talent 2) Mullen was able to outperform the metrics when he was invested, then he got the show cause penalty in Fall of 20 and was banned from going off campus so he decided to make up NFL rumors and when that didn't work started doing super weird shit like doing press conferences in costume and started having wild swings. Napier, like McGoober, is a Saban/Smart guy, but from the 2010-12 era. That approach requires (significantly) more talent than your opponent and even than I don't think it works today. If it's going to work you have to have better players. We'll see what this year brings.
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