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Post by Mojave Gator on Sept 3, 2023 15:04:46 GMT -5
I am off the Napier bandwagon. After reviewing several articles about the Utah game and the period leading up to it, and watching a game as entertaining as mowing the lawn, I have become convinced that Billy Napier is every bit as disastrous a hire as Will Muschamp. I will explain.
1. Outdated offensive concepts. A dogged commitment to the running game, the same kind of drudgery that made Will Muschamp's teams both tedious to watch and easier to beat, is a key staple of Napier's strategy. If we ever fall behind by more than one score, as happened at Utah, we are screwed because of the way that the offense is constructed. Trailing by 21 points, our lone touchdown drive ate up nearly seven minutes of the fourth quarter. We also converted only one of 13 third downs because the offense is designed to pick up three or four yards at a time. Quick strike teams will bury us, and our defense will eventually be worn down by the offense's inability to sustain drives.
I admit a significant amount of jealousy watching Colorado, in their first game under a new head coach after a 1-11 season, pass for over 500 yards and hang 45 points on a ranked opponent on the road. If a team scored 42 points on us, like TCU did to Colorado, we would lose by four touchdowns.
2. Bizarre coaching structure. Florida's special teams were atrocious. Besides a missed field goal, there were ill advised decisions to return kicks and, most egregiously, two players on the field with the same number on a punt return that gave Utah a first down on a drive that they scored a touchdown on. My first thought was why didn't a coach catch that? Then I found out why. We don't have a special teams coach. Yes, you read that right. Special teams are overseen by one of our bazillion off-field assistants, meaning that our head coach, who is busy thinking about our next two yard off tackle play, would be the only one to catch it. We also had too few players on the field for a Utah field goal attempt, which they fortunately missed. This is inexcusable for a top tier program.
3. Inattention to detail. Despite having months to prepare for an opponent we saw last season, there were multiple penalties for false start and illegal formation. Because of the way that the offense is structured, this contributed heavily to our inability to sustain drives. When third and two becomes third and seven, we might as well send the punter out.
Allegedly, we have a strong recruiting class coming in next year. My fear is that they will be bogged down in an antiquated offensive system, many will get frustrated and transfer out, and we will once again be incapable of recruiting offensive skill players in a state full of them.
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Post by wahhappen on Sept 3, 2023 18:40:59 GMT -5
My first thought was why didn't a coach catch that? Then I found out why. We don't have a special teams coach. Yes, you read that right. Special teams are overseen by one of our bazillion off-field assistants, meaning that our head coach, who is busy thinking about our next two yard off tackle play, would be the only one to catch it. This is inexcusable for a top tier program. This cannot be possible. Right? Also, I’m no Sunbelt-caliber coach, but most depth charts list the player, his position, and his number, correct? Anyway, tired of the “you’ll see in twenty years how good we are” approach. Just show me something. For the love of God. Something different. Something that proves we are moving in the right direction. Anything at all that we can point to on the field. Recruiting seemed to be going better, but we probably just lost about half our recruits to Colorado yesterday. |
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Post by Mojave Gator on Sept 3, 2023 20:35:33 GMT -5
One thing that we have learned is that when there is a coaching change, if there is going to be significant progress we see it no later than the second year. There is no debate that we are worse than we were a year ago, and it goes far beyond not having Anthony Richardson. Preparation is haphazard and disjointed, talent level is lacking, and our offense is predictable and easy to stop. What happens if we are three points down with two minutes to play? It takes seven minutes for us to score six points.
Napier seems lost. For him to say that he saw some good things out there, he was watching a different game than I was. I see some of Muschamp and some of Zook in him, and we know how that turned out. Hopefully the AD goes at the same time that Napier does.
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Post by Rock Gator on Sept 3, 2023 21:05:06 GMT -5
I'm not off the bandwagon, but I'm hanging onto a rope being dragged behind it. And every time I hit a rock, I wonder why I'm still hanging onto that rope.
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Post by g8rfan on Sept 3, 2023 21:39:49 GMT -5
Im not giving up hope just yet, but I’m sitting here watching FSU vs LSU and remembering being brow beaten around here when I said Mike Norvell might be a good hire when we hired Mullen. Oh how the turns have tabled. I’d for damn sure take him over Napier all day long. Watching this game really drives home just how bad we are right now. Both these teams will beat the brakes off of us this year.
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Post by gatordoll on Sept 4, 2023 0:49:21 GMT -5
Norvell had a rough first two years at FSU but really turned it around last year. But somehow I don't think Napier can succeed in the same way unless he can manage tbe team better on game day.
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Post by bimigator on Sept 4, 2023 10:14:25 GMT -5
Norvell should give Gator fans hope. He had a good track record in the mid-majors, a clunky transition, but seems to have found his footing. Dabo also went from a well regarded coordinator through a tough transition to being one of the top coaches in the game.
I personally am tired of the revolving door. We know Napier can coach at the mid-majors level. We know he's assembled a staff that focuses on recruiting. We know he's stumbling now, but he's only a season deep. We also know he's not 40-year-old Urban Meyer, who comes in and turns things around instantly.
I think everyone on this board should take a deep breath and see how the season plays out before deciding he's not worth keeping around.
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Post by g8rfan on Sept 4, 2023 13:22:59 GMT -5
I get the revolving door thing as well. I just want to see something on the field that resembles college football. So many mental mistakes. It’s one thing if you’re fundamentally sound and lose to better talent but I can’t handle the slop. I’ve never returned a punt in an organized football game in my life and even I know you don’t field it on the 5. If we play a clean game against Utah we likely win or at least make them really work for it. Just frustrated I suppose. Go Gators.
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Post by Mojave Gator on Sept 4, 2023 17:02:42 GMT -5
I'm not going to start Fire Billy Napier. I still hope to be proven wrong. He has lost my faith and confidence, and I see little hope for the future given what I have just seen two years in. We just got our asses handed to us by a team without their starting quarterback and three defensive starters. I also sat through the Oregon State game last year, the worst performance I have ever seen in person by a Florida team, and I was at UF during the Doug Dickey years - the last time when we lost to Kentucky and Vanderbilt in the same year.
I am also tired of the revolving door, but I am even more tired of the low quality hires that have made it necessary.
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Post by gatordoll on Sept 5, 2023 3:50:32 GMT -5
I believe his buyout is $31M
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Post by tapsgator on Sept 5, 2023 11:43:38 GMT -5
So the Norvell comp isn't horrible and I can't think of a better one, but a couple clear differences:
1) Memphis and Conference USA were considerably more competitive than Louisiana and the Sunbelt. Memphis went to the cotton bowl and was one loss away from being in the playoff conversation, and
2) Norvell was actually successful as an OC and QB coach before becoming a head coach.
3) Despite #2 he still has an offensive coordinator AND a QB coach. Fancy that. I wonder if he is super old fashioned and has a special teams coach instead of the graduate assistant to the offensive analyst in charge of the left side of the line's footwear? Probably not. Loser.
I would have hired Norvell rather than Dan Mullen, but ironically would have hired Napier over Norvell. Napier gets another year as long as he can hold the roster and the recruiting class together. There's predictable smoke out there about Etienne hitting the portal which I'm not inclined to believe, but if that happens it would likely be the beginning of the end.
Personally, while I don't like the revolving door I don't think it can be avoided. The next guy to have success at the level required to be the head coach at a destination job (unless we want to roll over and accept that UF is no longer a destination job) after 2 losing seasons out of the gate will be the first that I'm aware of. It should be even easier with the portal which has been the difference maker for Norvell.
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Post by Mojave Gator on Sept 5, 2023 22:08:59 GMT -5
The next guy to have success at the level required to be the head coach at a destination job (unless we want to roll over and accept that UF is no longer a destination job) after 2 losing seasons out of the gate will be the first that I'm aware of. This applies to the aforementioned Mike Norvell. Florida State was 3-6 and 5-7 in his first two years there. After the Jacksonville State loss last season, especially on the heels of losing a three point game to Notre Dame, Nole fans were losing their minds. Norvell should give Gator fans hope. He had a good track record in the mid-majors, a clunky transition, but seems to have found his footing. Dabo also went from a well regarded coordinator through a tough transition to being one of the top coaches in the game. It would if I saw some of the same qualities in Napier. I don't. I almost hear Ron Zook saying "We're getting better and better" after yet another defeat when I hear Napier talk about how he saw good things in the Utah game. The defense played pretty well, but then they haven't been beaten down yet by a season of the offense going three-and-out. The fact that any major aspect of the team would be overseen by someone who isn't on the sidelines or in the press box shows a level of disorganization that I do not believe can be overcome. I also don't see personal accountability, just Napier blowing smoke up our asses telling us that what we saw isn't as bad as we thought. The whole thing is giving me Zook flashbacks, with a heavy dose of Muschamp from the obsession with the running game. For the record, the game was just as bad as I originally thought. Watching a Colorado team who finished 1-11 last season pass for over 500 yards and hang 45 points on a ranked team in their own stadium was almost more than I could stand. You can't tell me that Deion Sanders inherited more talent at Colorado than Billy Napier did at Florida, no matter how bad that Dan Mullen's recruiting was. I really should have known this after the game against Oregon State here. We ran the ball 33 times and gained 39 yards. At what point do you say let's try something else? There was never an effort to get the Beavers' defensive line to chase and discourage them from bunching up in the middle by throwing screens out of the backfield to perhaps get the ball to Etienne in space. Etienne was our leading rusher with 14 yards. And this is what Napier wants to run here. |
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Post by tapsgator on Sept 8, 2023 9:07:28 GMT -5
The next guy to have success at the level required to be the head coach at a destination job (unless we want to roll over and accept that UF is no longer a destination job) after 2 losing seasons out of the gate will be the first that I'm aware of. This applies to the aforementioned Mike Norvell. Florida State was 3-6 and 5-7 in his first two years there. After the Jacksonville State loss last season, especially on the heels of losing a three point game to Notre Dame, Nole fans were losing their minds. Yeah, Norvell has shown the blue print and it's pretty straight forward: you have to hit the transfer portal hard and bring in more quality than goes out the door, the best way to measure/project success is the blue chip ratio (4&5 stars on your roster by percentile), and while there's no way to quantify positions of need if you watched FSU buggy whip LSU you know that Wilson, Pittman, Coleman, and Verse are both game wreckers (not to be confused with Game Changer coordinator who run special teams unit remotely). Verse also would have gone late 1st-early 2nd last year but came back to try to be a top 10 pick (whereas Gators not named Trey Dean and running 4.75 can't leave fast enough). This article may be Kool-Aid pumping but it lays it out pretty accurately: chopchat.com/2023/05/18/fsu-football-why-noles-top-transfer-portal-class-nation/So there's a definitive blueprint out there. Which brings us to: [It would if I saw some of the same qualities in Napier. I don't. I almost hear Ron Zook saying "We're getting better and better" after yet another defeat when I hear Napier talk about how he saw good things in the Utah game. Ding ding ding. So far he's given no indication that he has any adaptability especially if he's not copying Smart and Saban which is really odd to me. HIs quotes and behavior tell you he wants more than anything in the world to be just like those guys (probably from his days as an analyst and then working himself all the up to WR coach), but both those guys have adapted in a major way when necessary. Yet Billy is stuck on trying to replicate his success in the Sunbelt where I'm quite sure he was able to out recruit and out talent the competition because it's the Sunbelt and there's no competition. So he got away with bad play calling, lack of prep, the head coach calling the game, weird 2 point attempts, weirder timeouts, stupid penalties, not having a special teams coach, etc. etc. etc. Said it before and I'll say it again, to fix a problem you have to: A) recognize the problem and B) be willing to change. So far he's given no indication of either. Also, this quote after the Utah game is probably grounds for termination, so in the event we have to move on hopefully there's some language in his contract regarding diminished capacity/mental illness negating the buyout: “I would tell you the penalties in particular, are surprising. You know, we played really clean football, you know listen, the things that we can control right? Those are things that are frustrating for a coach right? Ultimately, too many of those in my opinion.” REALLY CLEAN FOOTBALL. After that game. I would have a really hard time not laughing when he says shit like this if I was a reporter. That is not the quote of a leader of men or a guy that is constantly evaluating and looking for areas where he and the team can improve. That's a guy that is in over his head and scrambling to make sure nobody "finds out" so he can keep his job. He has time to turn it around but the clock is ticking and he is yet to show the capacity or desire to change. I hope he finds it. |
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Post by wahhappen on Sept 8, 2023 13:25:19 GMT -5
I am curious, and this is an honest question, has anyone here watched any of Louisiana’s old games from when Napier coached from beginning to end? I have not, and I don’t intend to ever put myself through that experience. I am just wondering if anyone knows if he had the same issues with discipline, penalties, and the all around dumb phuckery we’ve seen in Gainesville. If he did not, it would make me feel much better about his chances of turning things around. But if he did, as Taps mentioned above, it could mean he just had more talent than the teams he beat and it makes me skeptical about his ability to get it done.
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Post by SoTxCaiman on Sept 8, 2023 14:22:40 GMT -5
Along those same lines, does anyone recall any Louisiana "moments"? Not conference wins or routine Sunbelt stuff, but a time they made some noise, beat someone they shouldn't have beaten, had an Appy State moment. I don't remember anything along those lines.
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Post by Rock Gator on Sept 10, 2023 18:34:57 GMT -5
Could be worse, and I'm serious. We could have paid Jimbo $95M to recruit 5*s, only to win 2 out of 3 games, on average. I don't think all that oil money thought it was going to a 2nd or 3rd place finish in the SECW, every year.
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Post by Mojave Gator on Sept 10, 2023 23:52:09 GMT -5
Could be worse, and I'm serious. We could have paid Jimbo $95M to recruit 5*s, only to win 2 out of 3 games, on average. I don't think all that oil money thought it was going to a 2nd or 3rd place finish in the SECW, every year. Mario Cristobal just lit a flame under Jimbo's seat. Miami isn't as good as some of the teams that A&M will face in the SEC, and they hung 48 points on them. |
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Post by bimigator on Sept 12, 2023 5:13:16 GMT -5
Mario Cristobal just lit a flame under Jimbo's seat. Miami isn't as good as some of the teams that A&M will face in the SEC, and they hung 48 points on them. The buyout is still unreal, though, with something like $75 million still guaranteed. Whoever represented Jimbo in that contract earned their paycheck for sure. At some point aTm will pony up and pay him to go away, but they'll probably have to bleed that buyout down a few more seasons, because Jimbo has absolutely no reason to leave. |
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Post by tapsgator on Sept 12, 2023 11:54:33 GMT -5
Along those same lines, does anyone recall any Louisiana "moments"? Not conference wins or routine Sunbelt stuff, but a time they made some noise, beat someone they shouldn't have beaten, had an Appy State moment. I don't remember anything along those lines. ,Napier%20went%201%2D5%20vs. Quick research: 2-10 after Utah, I think we're probably looking at 2-14 at the end of the year although LSU isn't that good and Tennessee and FSU are both in the Swamp. I do think we're going to go over 5.5 because Kentucky has looked bad and Mizzou looks terrible and barely got by Middle Tennessee at home. HIs 2 top 25 wins came in season openers against Iowa State in 2020 and Utah last year. Other than that they made it into the top 25 after beating App State. I know that last year we had a better team physically than Utah and I'm going to guess when RDB had it cooking in the Sunbelt he had the best athletes on the field. When the athletic playing field is even or we're at a disadvantage I just don't see how this team beats anybody with the current approach. I hope I get proven very wrong. First chance will be Saturday even though technically we have more talent on the roster. |
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Post by tapsgator on Sept 28, 2023 9:00:30 GMT -5
So the Tennessee win can get added to the big victory column. I don't think Tennessee will end the season ranked unless they have a miraculous turnaround but will take what we can get at this point. I couldn't think of a better place to put this and didn't feel like creating a new thread, but is it just me or is RDB making a run at Zook for stupidest/most delusional/non-sensical soundbites? www.si.com/college/florida/football/florida-gators-column-billy-napier-special-teams-cant-execute-basicsHis gameplans and performance on Gameday is starting a fire, but the constantly insulting the fans' and media's intelligence and evasive non-answers with the weird fake confidence ain't helping and may serve as gasoline if he doesn't rein it in. I really hope he's not an idiot. I still don't think so, but I'm starting to wonder because he damn sure can come across as one. |
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Post by Mojave Gator on Sept 28, 2023 17:35:17 GMT -5
I already mentioned that Napier is giving me Zook flashbacks. He seems to embody the worst characteristics of the two worst Florida coaches of my lifetime, Zook and Muschamp. He has Zook's nonsensical press sense, and he shares the obsession of both with the ground game and short controlled passing. Where he trumps them both is in poor coaching structure. Although both coaches were notorious for overruling their offensive coordinators, at least they had one, and neither entrusted special teams to a consultant.
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