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Post by tapsgator on Jan 18, 2023 12:01:03 GMT -5
Since the early window for the transfer portal closes today it's not a bad time to evaluate. It's not good. Without Rashada our class is devoid of a 5 star in any service and is likely to fall out of the top 15. We've lost the 2nd most guys to the portal in the country behind Texas A&M. Couple decent pulls out of the portal but lost way more than we gained. As of right now our QB room is awful. We're probably losing 5-6 guys that will be drafted from a Defense that was historically bad.
Barring a major change when the portal opens in May we are going to be significantly less talented than the last two rosters that went 6-7. Our highest projected pick at this point is Jason Marshall who is projected as a 4th rounder. We'll have 4-7 guys go in the top 4 rounds this year. I'm not being chicken little and there's still time but the clock is ticking and we're a long way from defusing this bomb.
I don't know how you win playing guys who won't play in the NFL against guys that will. Especially up front. Ask TCU, and they had a great game coach, a Heisman finalist, and one of the top WRs in the nation. They looked like a JV team against the big boys. I don't see Napier being the one who bucks that trend even for a stretch. Especially not with Graham Mertz or Jack Miller pulling the trigger.
Here's the damage:
Jason Marshall 101 CB | Projection: 4th Round
Jeremiah Williams 123 EDGE | Projection: 4th Round
Donovan McMillon S | Projection: 5th Round 214
Tyreak Sapp DL | Projection: 7th Round 256
Montrell JohnsonRB | Projection: UDFA 287
Kamryn WaitesOT | Projection: UDFA 349
Graham MertzQB | Projection: UDFA 358
Teradja MitchellLB | Projection: UDFA 448
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Post by tapsgator on Jan 18, 2023 11:32:26 GMT -5
He separated better than anybody last year other than the jackass that transferred out, Reynolds maybe? But that guy couldn't catch.
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Post by tapsgator on Jan 18, 2023 11:30:02 GMT -5
All good points. Now that Rashada has been released from his LOI it makes me wonder how strongly UF sold him on this $13M deal in the first place. When one of their major contributors couldn't come up with the $$ I can see how the family felt slighted after being assured it was a done deal. But the big problem overall is how will NCAA deal with this in the future. The #1 QB recruit signed with Texas for a mere $3.5M but his family doesn’t need the $$. However I still wonder why he went with Sarkisian. Kiffin would have been a better choice especially with family history. Oh yeah, they had to release him. If they hadn't they would have no shot at ever cracking the top 10 much less the top 5 which is what it's gonna take to turn this thing around in recruiting/transfers again. Realistically unless we make a big swing for an OC and hit with a Joe Brady or Garrett Riley type with this organizational system and offensive approach which is born of the Bama/Georgia model you need top 3 classes. I don't think Napier is inclined or has the ability to set aside his ego on offense or his loyalty on defense and get one of those guys. I don't know if Napier can get the talent in here to make a run at a NC period, but I know he can't with a complete lack of infrastructure and tweedle dee and tweedle dum AD combo playing their fiddles while the program burns. We are so far behind the curve it's embarrassing. Clearly the farthest behind amongst big time programs and probably the farthest behind in the Power 5. Maybe even all of FBS. Which begs the question, when this either auto-corrects on some level (which might happen) or the NCAA actually gets it reined in (no way IMO, they don't care because they're still making ridiculous money and now they can say "our hands are tied"), can/how do we catch back up and actually get in front of it? I have no faith in Stricklin/Foley and am losing faith in Napier by the day. I don't think he's stupid at all (although some of the game management was confusing), but I think he's in deep and the water is rising over his head as his support from above are busy moving around deck furniture on the titanic and/or trying to avoid another scandal in non-revenue sports. Then there's the other issue, reading between the lines the only way this makes sense is: 1) Either the collective under Rojas and "Gator Jen" made a promise without any way to fulfill it; 2) Hancock/Gator Guard had actually said they'd pay in early November when Rashada flipped and we had a little run and then Vandy, FSU, and bowl game made them back out; or 3) some combination of the two Either way it's a colossal shit show, and it's a lot to come back from. Not sure the way out of the hole, but somebody needs to put down the fucking shovel.
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Post by tapsgator on Jan 17, 2023 14:04:48 GMT -5
I don't think Norvell is great by any means, but the portal and NIL make it much easier to make a quick turnaround than actually having to overhaul a culture AND roster with high school kids and/or transfers that have to sit a year unless they've graduated (which generally means they aren't good enough to play on Sundays or get a starting job at their current school). Now, it cuts both ways, and if you and/or the administration at your school manages to crap all over themselves kids can leave and you can't bring in anybody good to replace them you can (continue to) fall just as fast as you can turn it around.
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Post by tapsgator on Jan 17, 2023 10:35:45 GMT -5
I understand the sentiments and knee jerk reaction, but here's the thing, the NCAA made 1.16 BILLION DOLLARS in Revenue in 2021. To "regulate" as an administrative body. They ignored the calls from the courts to rectify what basically amounted to borderline indentured servant labor paying well below minimum wage. I won't say slave labor because a bunch of rich old white guys making money off the biggest strongest black athletes isn't politically correct. Welp, the genie is out of the bottle and the same organization is not going to "fix" it. That's just wishful thinking. Honestly, in the vast majority of cases these kids have a singular skill set. They go out and get in a car wreck 40-50 times a day about 200 days a year. I don't think the average fan can possibly comprehend the force when 500+ lbs. of fast moving muscle runs into each other at full speed. So we wince when Tua has a seizure on the field, and we pray for Hamlin, we all feel for the families of guys with CTE, but an actual market economy for the kids who generate literally billions of dollars for the Universities they play for during what is a 4 year window for 99% of them? That's just greedy.
Make no mistake, college football is a business. An ultra successful business. The 20 most profitable programs made 975 million dollars, including the ship that keeps taking on water in Gainesville turning a 37 million dollar profit. In what other business would we blame a job candidate for taking issue with SIGNING A CONTRACT for 13 million dollars and then them backing out after you not only sign a binding contract but also sign a letter that takes you off the job market and puts you behind your peers?
This isn't on Rashada. Or his family. Or even his agent. This is fraudulent inducement and breach of contract by the Gator Collective. I'm not going to go into exactly what the remedies are for the Rashada family because it's a lot to unpack, but letting him out of his LOI needs to be done immediately by the University based on extenuating circumstances or whatever because a Court is going to light the Collective up, and the Court of public opinion will be worse. You can't sign a contract with and then say "oh wait we don't have the money, how about we shave 70-80% off?" I'm not talking public opinion amongst fans who are understandably put off by NIL/transfer portal/etc., I'm talking about the people who matter, the recruits. Rashada would not be the one holding out in this situation. The Collective is literally holding out the consideration that they promised.
I had a Bulldog friend say "I wouldn't go after a kid who is looking primarily for NIL money." Great concept, complete bullshit. I guarantee you every 4 and 5 star in Georgia's class made a decision based primarily on NIL. Aside from Arch Manning (who will wind up being the best paid college athlete of all time even though he doesn't need it), every kid in this class considered NIL money in their decision if they were good enough to garner an offer. Every school is doing it, and near as I can tell doing it much much much better than UF. Frankly this is all on the administration, primarily the ADs, and that is plural because all of this stinks so much of Foley that it's obvious he still has way too much influence.
I probably understand how we got here better than most, but it doesn't matter, we're here. College football is not amateur athletics, and hasn't been for a long time, at least as long as I've been alive. If you don't want NIL and want a market economy the only way to do it is the way baseball does where the best kids have the option to go pro out of high school. It isn't safe and it would water down the product, but you really can't have it both ways.
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Post by tapsgator on Jan 16, 2023 20:46:49 GMT -5
That's something. I don't think he was on many NFL radars but it's something
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Rashada
Jan 11, 2023 20:26:34 GMT -5
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Post by tapsgator on Jan 11, 2023 20:26:34 GMT -5
Oh I’m not angry at the kid at all. Believe me, if I could have sat down with a potential employer with high school as my only experience and negotiated myself a 7 figure deal I certainly would have. These kids are just operating in the new world that has presented itself and I don’t blame them at all. It’s just nuts to me, and I’ve said it before about pro sports. I think athletic contracts should be fair obviously but the real money should be in performance / incentive type bonuses. You want a million dollars? Throw me 25-30 TD passes. If this kid gets a great deal, then comes in and lays an egg (which seems to the current trend at UFQB), then what? Roll the dice again next year and keep paying this kid? I just don’t see how this is going to exist without devouring itself. I agree, the problem is the “fan” in fanatical. Say he flops (evidently he wants out of his LOI so it will probably be somewhere else), next man up in the super rich line. These guys wanna tell their buddies “I did that” and taking a multimillion dollar hit is like letting my daughter order at Starbucks. The issue I have is it’s the same rules everywhere. For all the “he’s got a plan” talk we are so far behind that recruits and fans don’t even know who’s stroking the check. And using “the system is broked” as a cop out just avoids any accountability for an AD tag team that has taken us from 4 of 5 national titles 15 years ago to a non-tournament team and the 12th-13th best season in the sec this year and trending the wrong way. With a side of racial and sexual discrimination scandals for good measure. It’s unacceptable but being accepted. Fuchs needs to grab some sac and get Foley the hell out of the building along with mullens bestie. If a real AD signs off in Napier and/or Golden as the guy(s) give him 2-3 more years. This shit is getting progressively harder to watch
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Post by tapsgator on Jan 11, 2023 14:41:14 GMT -5
Yeah I hear you. This from the last article I linked kind of sums up my take on the situation:
"Unfortunately, there will be no outcome from this situation that will appease Florida football fans. If this is a NIL hang-up and the details get hashed out and Rashada is on campus within the next week, fans will complain that Rashada is only in it for the money. This may have some truth to it, but it is also unfair to Rashada. He simply trying to secure his piece of the pie from a system that has exploited student-athletes for decades.
If Rashada bails from his LOI, the Gator Collective is going to have some serious questions to answer, and one could argue that Stricklin’s fate is tied to Rashada arriving on campus. Billy Napier is already trying to piece together a competitive squad for 2023, but in reality, he is building a squad meant to win in 2024. If Rashada falls through it is a major piece of the 2024 puzzle missing and if the Gators are still in the 6-6 range by then, both Napier and Stricklin will be gone.
Trying to follow the back-and-forth at times is exhausting, but it is the reality of modern-day college football. In time, the free-range NIL world isn’t sustainable, and the NCAA will need to move to a more structured system to get athletes paid.
Until then, Florida football needs to figure out its methodology before it gets completely left behind."
One place I disagree is that I don't know that the NCAA is capable of regulating NIL, they're the same institution that created this through sheer greed and ignoring case after case where the courts tried to tell them to stop exploiting the kids on their own or they would do it for them. They chose the latter and that's that. I'm not sure how you unring this bell.
That said, the Gator Collective is, pardon my lack of political correctness here, bullshit and part of the problem is that writers, even good ones, don't understand the actual dynamics. This has been a problem from day 1 in the Rashada debacle. The Gator Collective is me and you. If we want to feel a part of we can donate a couple hundred or even a couple thousand dollars, they'll figure out a way to try to make it go towards recruiting, nice story, hopefully it scrapes together a mil or two.
The Gator Guard is the Bull Gators and can actually move the needle. Hancock paid Mullen's buyout or Stricklin would not have pulled the trigger. Which is reason 8,563 that he should not be the AD, but I digress. The Guard is who Napier asked for 20m from. There should be no negotiations between 5 stars and the Collective. The Collective rep needs to shut up instead of getting in a pissing match with the guy who reps 3-4 of the top 10 QBs from this class including Rashada. It's a bad look and Napier (I'm assuming with help from the Guard) managed to get a 5 star QB back from Miami and Ruiz, now hopefully they can work through whatever snag they've hit. People getting pissed off at the kid is counter-productive at best. I get the sentiment, but it's an 18 year old kid trying to support his family (right or wrong that's what most 5 stars are, a meal ticket), I'm not gonna expect him to be the adult in the room.
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Rashada
Jan 11, 2023 11:12:09 GMT -5
Post by tapsgator on Jan 11, 2023 11:12:09 GMT -5
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Post by tapsgator on Jan 11, 2023 11:06:14 GMT -5
FSU is getting Travis back (not really a surprise) and Verse back (huge surprise). Sources put Verse's NIL money between 500k and a million, and while that seems light to turn down first round money, it can sustain him to where he could make a move into the top 10 and it certainly appears that Norvell and company have figured out how to play the game better than the Napier army at this point. Once the dust settles on the portal you can look at the Composite Talent Evaluator which isn't perfect, but is the best tool I've found. This year the top 3 were:
1) Bama 2) UGA real close 2nd 3) Ohio State
Those were the 3 most talented teams in the country. Unless the portal really picks up we are going to drop from 14 into the 20s. That's probably 25% on Napier and 75% on Mullen, but in year 3 it's safe to flip those #s. We will not be a real contender until we are top 10 on that list. Napier runs a pretty straight forward scheme on both sides of the ball, and, more importantly, you can't trick your way around an SEC schedule. Dykes is a helluva coach and they had a magical run. Against an SEC schedule if everything fell into place that team would have won 7-8 games. Realistically due to attrition via injury and lack of depth they probably would have won 4-5. That's just the reality of college football right now.
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Post by tapsgator on Jan 11, 2023 10:53:08 GMT -5
Kirby won't go anywhere, if he wanted to go to the NFL someone would give certainly give him a look, but he's at his alma matter and a college guy through and through. He doesn't seem to have any inclination to jump anywhere, and he could probably go just about anywhere he wants to minus Bama or a settled situation in the league. He's a problem because he's Saban but with actual loyalty to his school. I think he's a lifer. Our best bet is that he's too intense and burns himself out. I think he's gonna try to chase down Saban for National championships.
I wound up watching 4 Georgia games this year because I've got PSLs at Mercedes Benz and stumbled into OCP tickets, 3 of them I watched the teams come through the tunnel, the only team that remotely matched up with Georgia size wise was Ohio State. Ohio State was a Ryan Day away from beating them. That's what you have to do to beat them. Bama and Ohio State were the only two teams that had a chance last year and SEC fatigue and injuries kept Bama out. I said from the beginning Kirby is the only Saban acolyte who could out-Saban Nick Saban. That has come home to roost these last 2 years. It will continue if Saban doesn't make changes at the coordinator positions which he would've done mid-season in his heyday.
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Post by tapsgator on Jan 6, 2023 12:41:07 GMT -5
Worst start for Gator Basketball since 95 as Golden sees Napier's D+ grade for year one and says "hold my beer."
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Post by tapsgator on Jan 4, 2023 12:59:20 GMT -5
It appears that all of our eggs are in that basket, but I will say this scares the shit out of me after 22:
"Rashada’s game performance mirrored what we saw during practice. He flashed at times but also struggled with consistency.
He finished the night 4-8 for 25 yards and rushed four times for -1 yards. When we talked to his Team Speed coaches during the week, they raved about his arm talent but said he struggled with some mental mistakes at times in terms of reading the defense.
In tonight’s game, Rashada was pressured quite a bit but there were also a few plays where he didn’t get the ball out of his hand as quickly as he needed to. During media check-in, Rashada said processing the game quicker and being able to get through his reads was a big area he wanted to improve on when he got to college.
We’re still excited about his long term upside and feel his ceiling is just about as high as almost any quarterback in this class. He’s one of the best pure throwers in the class and is an under rated athlete. We’d like to see him take off and run more decisively when the play breaks down but he’ll make a huge jump in a few years and it’s exciting to see where his game will end up."
That sounds eerily familiar, only he's missing 60 lbs., doesn't run a 4.4, and can't dunk from the free throw line. The silver lining is what I talked about a lot with Richardson last year, Rashada has probably gotten better coaching as a blue chip consensus high 4/low 5 star QB that was on everybody's radar than Richardson has as a low 4 star kid in Gainesville that never got a chance to start until this year and the only interested and talented coach left when he was the 3rd string project as a Freshman taking a red-shirt. So he should be closer and easier for Napier to coach up.
If the choices are what's on the roster right now, I guess you can give the Big 10 transfers some run early, but if they struggle, and their history indicates they will, I'd like to see General Napier and his brigade of staffers give him the keys no later than the Charlotte game. Running a Graham Mertz/Jack Miller out there in perpetuity to try to squeak out 7 wins would be infinitely worse long term than letting Rashada have some growing pains.
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Post by tapsgator on Jan 4, 2023 12:39:10 GMT -5
I find it odd that expectations are lower going into year 2 vs. year 1. It is odd, and I'll go one further, it's a loser(s) mentality. I really hate saying this but Spurrier's "entitled fanbase" comment on his way out the door may have done more long term damage than any of the buffoons who followed him. I feel like he knows it too, and if you watch any interview he's given in then not too distant past (basically since he didn't have to recruit against us at SC) he goes out of his way to talk about the built in advantages and standard at Florida, be that in recruiting, developing, or coaching. Maybe it's wishful thinking born from my idolatry of the guy, but I'm 99% sure if he could go back in time he'd take that back, and he doesn't strike me as a guy prone to regret. That's provided the cop out for Foley and his minions ever since. Entitled fans didn't make Muschamp a bad hire and worse extension, they didn't make McGoober a reach because Foley was afraid people would say no, they didn't turn Mullen into a douchebag with his eye on a better job regardless of his lack of merit, and it's not entitled to expect major improvement and overhauls after a losing season where we've lost 40 kids between the portal and draft and Napier earned a D+ which may be too high. But, if Stricklin can keep his job as he runs the money sports into the ground and keeps getting caught up in scandals on the women's side, I feel like it becomes monkey see-monkey do. Shouldn't be. I understand why some say that but if it's the same or worse Napier should be fired sooner than later. I agree for the most part, the one thing I will say is that Napier is more of an unwritten book because it's really his first go round and he's young. So, if there are signs of progress that don't translate on his record I wouldn't have a problem with giving him a year 3 if he's shown some significant signs of life. I'm talking top 5 recruiting class and Rashada starts the last half of 23 and shows a high ceiling. Also, if the offense struggles he fires himself as OC and play caller and hires someone experienced (Lincoln Riley's little brother would be nice), and if the Defense struggles he goes out and pays for a proven commodity on the recruiting trail (Charlie Strong or Trob type). I'm assuming that as a Ragin Cajun you can have a big support staff, be a solid coach and recruiter, and just roll the ball out and dominate. Everybody has process/vision in big time college football, the question is can you execute it. It's the Tyson quote "everybody's got a plan until they get punched in the mouth." Losing to all 4 rivals, getting boat raced in the bowl, falling out of the top 10 in recruiting, losing the 2nd most players to the transfer portal of any team in the country behind only Dimbo and everybody who could turn pro did (waiting on Pearsall), that's not just taking a right cross, that's damn near getting curb stomped. Let's see if he can get up. I find it odd that expectations are lower going into year 2 vs. year 1. For one we came into the season knowing we had a freakishly athletic QB even if the HC and staff were new. After watching the team basically go backward all season and losing said QB I see nothing in the cards to make me think there will be any improvement this season. I hope I'm wromg but i just don't see it. That's right where I'm at, my main issue is that Richardson was more physically gifted than I could have imagined and didn't really develop nor did the offensive approach adapt to his strengths and weaknesses. Then we saw what happened when he wasn't back there which makes it fair to wonder if the only thing that gave us those flashes was Richardson being a freak. I just watched Stetson Bennett for the 4th time this year. I've seen at least 15 mediocre to poor throws result in positive plays based on the talent around him and the game plan scheming guys wide open. I can't think of one big time play this year that didn't rely on freakish athleticism by Richardson or one of the running backs. Closer to home, how many times did Trask throw balls up for grabs (and sometimes badly) that Toney grabbed in space with nobody around him or Pitts took away from 2-3 defenders? Apparently a lot because most mock drafts have Tampa Bay drafting a QB this year. Those plays all left with Brian Johnson. There's not one time this year that I thought Richardson got bailed out by a receiver or play call/gameplan. That's gotta change. Because there's no Anthony Richardson in the portal and we just lost 80% of our starting line plus the top backup. And this Defense was historically inept with 6 guys (2 at each level) expected to go in the top 4 rounds, so he better get to work.
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Post by tapsgator on Jan 3, 2023 13:17:08 GMT -5
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Post by tapsgator on Jan 3, 2023 11:32:36 GMT -5
With the roster we have right now and what we saw from a coaching approach I am expecting anywhere from 3 to 5 wins.
There's definitely still time on both accounts but especially the roster. I'm discouraged by the lack of action so far, but it's early. Hopefully we're making a big push behind the scenes and maybe White and/or Tarquin come back? I dunno, I'm ready to hear some decent news and stop grasping at straws.
On coaching I have some hope for the guys on the offensive side of the ball and general game management. We saw some flashes of decent adjustments, and hopefully the lack of running was on Richardson and/or lack of depth, but again you gotta fix depth by bringing in talent not going the other direction. At least there's something to grab onto on that side of the ball. On Defense I don't know, I just don't know. I have a really hard time believing in Toney and the fact that Napier seems inclined to keep putting lipstick on that particular pig is the majority of my misgivings about his ability to make a leap.
I guess we'll see. Go Gators.
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Post by tapsgator on Jan 3, 2023 11:12:19 GMT -5
I was at the Peach Bowl, both fanbases have their fair share of idiots but I think Ohio State does indeed take the cake. Now I will say that was maybe the single worst officiated game I have seen in person at any level, but I digress. My personal favorite was claiming that UGA players were faking injuries with 30 seconds left to play because somehow they wanted to stop the clock? It was the least logical thing ever. Also, blaming the QB when your coach plays for a 50 yard FG by a kid who has never made a 50 yard FG in his life is pretty funny. Ryan Day bitched out. Period. He tried to out-think the room and when his genius fake punt call (which would have been much better if he had disguised the formation and not had 12 men on the field). Then he punted on 4&1. It was classic playing not to lose. I actually said to my friend who is a bulldog, "y'all may be in trouble because he has to try to push the ball downfield." I underestimated the level of bitch in Ryan Day. 50 yard FG under that pressure when you've never made a 50 yarder? Top notch.
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Post by tapsgator on Jan 1, 2023 23:37:02 GMT -5
Yeah I’m just flabbergasted that he is leaving Toney in place.
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NSD
Dec 31, 2022 22:34:22 GMT -5
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Post by tapsgator on Dec 31, 2022 22:34:22 GMT -5
I mean if you’re a defensive player who has their choice of schools and everybody has at the top of their list why would you come play for Patrick Toney?
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NSD
Dec 31, 2022 22:33:03 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by tapsgator on Dec 31, 2022 22:33:03 GMT -5
The hope is that this is the first step in a rebuilding process and that things will get worse before we see a major turnaround. I would just like to see a few more signs of improvement and some consistency. It is difficult to execute a plan when you have several starters not on board. The problem I have at this point is there is no clear definition of what the plan is. It’s like Arthur’s “plan” in Red Redemption 2. Perhaps it is more clear to those inside the program than it is to us. It wouldn't be the first time that we didn't have complete information. It would be a good idea to start executing a bit of it or at least divulging it to recruits and guys in the portal.
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Post by tapsgator on Dec 28, 2022 13:28:49 GMT -5
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Post by tapsgator on Dec 28, 2022 12:41:53 GMT -5
While it's fair to question whether he should be the play caller/de facto OC based on his resume, Napier has always been a good recruiter as an assistant coach. I don't put any real stock in Sun Belt recruiting. O'Cyrus and Johnson obviously were amazing for Louisiana but I have no idea what their recruiting looked like . I do know Torrence was a 2 star and Montrell a low 3 and he got them both out of Louisiana.
My question is can he close? Dabo, Kirby, Saban, they're closers. They get in their helicopter and go get the 4 and 5 star kids. Cristobal is a closer. We lost out on every 5 star we were in the mix for over the last 2 years other than James and (on some rankings) Rashada. That can't happen. Too much lipstick on the pig at this point. "70% of his recruits are from Florida, he's closing the border!" No, we didn't get 1 kid from the top 20 in the State this year. Georgia got 7. Bama got 4. He's closing the border on kids that better recruiters don't want. "Best blue chip ratio since Urban!" Well year, but we're down a net of 20 players so with the promise of early playing time you're getting kids anywhere from 80-300 in the country. That's not a win.
More importantly these aren't the arguments that successful programs have. Georgia doesn't have to explain why their recruiting is actually super good when they're outside the top 10 in the country. Alabama doesn't need to blame NIL because guys projected to start in 23 are hitting the portal.
I have heard about this clear plan and vision for the program, can we go ahead and start executing it? Now would be a good time. Without the Louisiana transfers last year this is a 3-4 win team. That was a one year luxury. The portal is full of kids who can help us. Go get them.
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Post by tapsgator on Dec 28, 2022 12:29:39 GMT -5
Yeah, I think the grade is spot on. I'm still a ways away from saying he's not the guy, but certainly starting to ask "is he the guy?" We need to see signs of progress beyond a new facility and spending 6 million dollars on administrative staff. Beyond saying "I'm seeing some good things, it's really turning around" in perpetuity every time you're in front of a hot mic.
My concerns in some semblance of order:
1) Why is there no movement or even hint of movement on the coaching staff? We're getting beat on the field and off, our defense was historically bad, and 40 guys have left since the start of the season while 22 have come in. At the end of the year we were an undisciplined and not very talented team. I've lost track of how many fireable offenses Toney committed, but there were a lot. Trey Dean played himself back into a day 2-3 pick, Dexter is still going in the first in most mocks I've seen, Burney day 2-3, Torrence same, Miller will probably get drafted. That tells me that the NFL does not think that talent was the problem. That only leaves scheme and development. Which brings me to:
2) What does Billy want to be? He kind of seems stuck in the middle of a coach who holds the card and calls plays (these guys are dinosaurs and not very successful ones at this point but guys like Jimbo, McGoober and Malzahn) and the CEO type that he trained under (Saban, Smart, Dabo). Our play calling was not good. At all. Moreover the game management was pure dogshit. I can't think of one game where we didn't mismanage the clock. How does that happen when you have as much staff as we've got? We can't find one guy to count to three on timeouts? It felt very jack of all trades master of none.
3) It bears mentioning that as an OC he was good in year 1 at Clemson, fired after year 2, off field analyst at Bama, followed McGoober to Colorado State after a year stint as an analyst, then went to FSU before going back to Saban as a position coach, and was then mediocre at Arizona State, so he isn't exactly Joe Brady.
4) It's probably not fair, but Napier is the Quarterbacks coach. That's supposed to be his wheelhouse. Anthony Richardson is a generational physical talent. He's super raw, and I think Mullen was criminal in how he handled him in his most formative year when Johnson was gone, but AR was unequivocally the worst coached player on our team. Probably in the country. His mechanics were a mess, he was tentative, and his decision making was questionable. He was more accurate at 40+ yards (where he didn't overthink and just cut it loose) than he was at 10. When he just played he showed flashes of being the 1/1 pick. Most Gator fans will think that's a gross overstatement, but a smaller, slower, weaker armed guy is going top 10 (Levis) based on physical tools. Maybe Richardson isn't coachable, if NFL guys think that was the problem then he'll go undrafted unless he switches positions (he could play anywhere on the field other than the line of scrimmage). If they think coaching was the issue he'll go in the first or second round. I know where the smart money is. I'm struggling to think of a successful head coach whose position group hasn't been consistently one of the best coached, well developed, and best recruited on the team. Harbaugh at Michigan maybe? Slight difference between winning the Sun Belt and taking a team to the Super Bowl though.
4) The recruiting, portal included, it's a long way from where it needs to be at this point, and seems to be going the wrong way. He needs to pull of a miraculous turnaround in the portal to have any semblance of a competitive team next year.
End of the day, we've either got a McGoober or a Smart on our hands (if he gets out of his own way and starts managing the game like a CEO). We will know a lot more next year. And I think it will be revealed pretty quick. When it is I hope that we have an AD in place who will act, but somehow we've got Dumb and Dumber running the $$$$$$ sports into the ground while surviving multiple sexual harassment type lawsuits in the women's sports. Strange times my friends. I never thought that making a 12 team play-off in 2024 would feel so far away.
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Post by tapsgator on Dec 28, 2022 0:24:32 GMT -5
For all of the talk about culture, I saw the coaching staff repeatedly run Watson out grossly overweight on the defensive line, and there is a clip from the bowl game on an Oregon State pass play, when a Florida edge rusher takes a couple of steps toward the line and barely touches the offensive lineman. No effort whatsoever. Jinx, I just posted the same thing in the portal thread.
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Post by tapsgator on Dec 28, 2022 0:21:56 GMT -5
One article that I read (I fond it on my phone, and haven't been able to find it online to link it) says that players are saying that guys are leaving because Mullen was easier on the players, especially the upperclassmen. They don't want the discipline - which was exactly my theory about why all of these players are hitting the portal. Napier is dead on when he says that there was a culture problem here when he arrived. That he has made significant progress in changing it in year one is far less certain. Completely agree. For the most part I agree about him being more disciplinarian, he certainly comes off that way, but, and this is a big but, these last couple were unexpected by everyone in the program it seems. Both the lineman, but especially white, were known as hard workers. White came in at 400+ and worked his ass off to get in shape and eventually start. He’s everything the media wants Desmond Watson to be. That’s not a kid like cox or some of the guys who left earlier in the cycle where they may have seen writing on the wall. That’s a high character kid and most likely team captain next year who is trying to play on Sundays. Reminds me a good bit of Diabete. It also bears mentioning that I’ve heard the talk of being a disciplinarian, but I also see people out of shape, a QB who didn’t necessarily regress but didn’t improve. A team that quit in the bowl game. A defense that routinely didn’t get lined up Pre-snap. And of course a backup QB who happens to be a pedophile. Nothing about this team reminded me of a Saban or Smart team other than the fact the we spend more on off field staff than anybody and some of the sound bites are familiar. Amongst the fan base including some of my friends there’s this “they’re leaving for NIL” company line, I haven’t seen anything to support that. I think they’re leaving because they feel they have a better shot at making the NFL playing for another staff. I read where “Braun went to arkansas an inferior SEC program.” No, just no, Pittman is the best line coach in the world and frankly arkansas is not inferior to UF right now. Painful truth is painful. Right now we’ve lost @ 35-40 kids and have brought in 22. None of them are upgrades from the guys they’re replacing. If that doesn’t improve it’s going to be a very long 2023. It needs to be a complete 180. Not graham mertz. Now we’ve got 2 graham mertzes on the roster. Jack Miller and Graham Mertz
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Post by tapsgator on Dec 27, 2022 13:16:43 GMT -5
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Post by tapsgator on Dec 27, 2022 13:13:43 GMT -5
This is so weird to me, distribution of the top 20 from Florida:
UGA: 7 Miami: 4 Bama: 3 Ohio State: 2 Texas, FSU, LSU, Oklahoma: 1 each
It's not really a new thing either, last year we got 1 of the top 20 in Florida. It's early on, but if Napier doesn't start getting at least 3 of the top 20 in Florida he will be out of a job, or at least should be out of a job, by 2024. Napier has talked about closing down the borders, but talk is cheap, so far Mullen recruited the best kids in Florida better.
At some point somebody is going to do something smart and bring in guys who can flat out recruit. Robert Gillespie from Alabama is the #3 ranked recruiter in the country. He's a Gator alum and was the lead recruiter for Keon Kelly from Tampa (flipped from Notre Dame) and Desmond Ricks from IMG (one time Florida lean). TRob who was supposedly coming here was secondary on Ricks and another five star as well as a couple 4 stars. Neither of those guys are in the running for a coordinator job in Tuscaloosa. They should be here, and both positions should be open. Big picture that's what we need. Go all in on some sort of plan. Right now it seems like we've got a bunch of logical goals and some cool cliches that make for good copy, but with our "army" we're not really marching forward, all just kind of milling around aimlessly. Like the defense on 4th and 4 after a 5 minute break in the action against FSU. Right now I feel like we definitely have more administrative staff than players on the roster.
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Post by tapsgator on Dec 27, 2022 10:38:39 GMT -5
So, here's the problem with this, Mertz initially was slated to go to Kentucky. However Kentucky also targeted Devin Leary who is the consensus number 1 ranked QB to enter the portal thus far to Mertz's 12-18 depending on the site. Mertz then commits to Florida. The problem I have is that this may very well mean we are out on the other guys in the portal. Rashada better be the real deal. Best analogy I saw was "Gators getting Mertz out of the portal feels like going to the grocery store to buy a huge steak and coming back with a Hungry Man microwave dinner." Having seen him play, that's pretty much dead on. Maybe Napier can coach him up, but he's been a bust. This is not good. White (#9 IOL in portal) and Tarquin (11 Tackle) were going to be our two best lineman next season. Wherever they go they'll start. Braun (18 IOL) will likely start at Arkansas. We have 2 offensive line coaches and one is the OC, although pretty much in name only. Not good. We basically need a starting offensive line out of the portal, and unless we pull off some shockers we won't get anybody ranked nearly as high. As bad as the O-line was in the bowl game it projects to be worse. Apart from the few dynasties that players don't want to leave once they get there, rosters are going to be pretty transient in this era of what is essentially college free agency. It's going to be tough for most programs to maintain any kind of consistency. With this latest round of departures we may have passed Texas A&M for the most guys leaving. We were at number 2. While there will be some attrition everywhere this is unusual to say the least. I feel like the house is not in order. The University of Florida is a destination school. We should be one of those dynasties. The fact that Dumb and Dumber have managed to take us from 4 National Championships in 3 years in the two premier sports 15 years ago to this is a failure of such epic proportions I really can't fathom it. We are not even fringe contenders for an SEC championship in football or basketball. Somehow we are turning into Vanderbilt without the academic standards. Smack dab in the middle of the best recruiting state in the country with a storied history and national brand. I don't think this can be fixed with Stricklin/Foley in the building.
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NSD
Dec 23, 2022 23:41:47 GMT -5
via mobile
g8rfan likes this
Post by tapsgator on Dec 23, 2022 23:41:47 GMT -5
FWIW, our recruiting class rank percentage-wise was #5 nationally. That’s a silver lining for sure along with the no flips. But the only way it really holds water is if we reload in the transfer portal with better talent than left. Our overall rank between portal and class is the same as the class rank. That doesn’t really ding you for guys who left, but as people find new homes we can either rise or fall. We need quantity and quality thanks to the prior regime. Portal was always going to be huge, but with a small class and as many leaving it is more huger than ever this year
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NSD
Dec 21, 2022 11:19:06 GMT -5
Post by tapsgator on Dec 21, 2022 11:19:06 GMT -5
Kelby Collins signed and there were whispers of him flipping so that's a win. I think he plays inside and should contribute immediately. Unless Watson losses 60-70 lbs and actually becomes the player that the coaching staff seems to think he is and the media desperately wants him to be, we need DTs and 3 technique DEs
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